How to Write a Deal Slip Rule You Will Actually Obey

To write a deal slip rule, decide now what a moved close date costs a deal. A simple version: a deal whose close date moves twice leaves commit until something new and factual happens. A date that passes with no update means the deal is unknown, and unknown deals count nowhere.

How to write a deal slip rule that you actually obey

You already have a deal slip rule. It's just unwritten. It says: "This one's different, give it another month."

That rule has a perfect record of being wrong. It's also why one hopeful deal can sit in four forecasts in a row, looking healthier each time.

A written rule fixes this for a boring reason. It's made by calm you, on a quiet afternoon, and it's enforced by tired you, on a Friday, when the number is short. Calm you doesn't negotiate with Friday you. The rule does.

Here's the part most advice skips. A solo operator has no manager to say "that's the third time, take it out." You are the seller, the forecaster and the person who loves the deal. Nobody else will move it. So the rule has to be mechanical. If it needs your judgment in the moment, it isn't a rule. It's a mood.

Why slippage is the thing to police

Deals mostly don't get lost. They get late.

A deal can be real, qualified and genuinely headed for a signature, and still wreck your forecast by closing next quarter instead of this one. For this quarter's cash, a deal that closes next quarter is a lost deal. It just has better manners.

Slippage is also nearly invisible if you only track value and stage. The deal sits at "proposal reviewed". The value doesn't change. Only the date moves, and dates are easy to nudge without feeling like you've changed anything. You haven't changed the deal. You've changed the story about when it ends.

So the rule polices the date. Not the stage, not the value. The date is where the forecast quietly lies.

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The three parts every deal slip rule needs

You don't need a policy document. You need three sentences. Write them where you'll see them in the weekly review.

First, what counts as a slip. The close date moves later. Any amount. Moving it a day later counts. If small moves are free, you'll make a lot of small moves, and a deal can drift forever in tiny steps that each feel fine.

Second, what a slip costs. This is the bit that makes it a rule. A sensible version: the first slip is allowed and noted. The second slip takes the deal out of commit. It stays in the pipeline, but you stop staking your plans on it, until something new and factual happens. A signed document, a named decision date from the buyer, a meeting with the person who signs. Something that happened, not something you feel.

Third, how it gets back in. Only a fact re-enters a deal into commit. Your confidence isn't a fact. "They seemed keen on the call" isn't a fact. "The buyer told me their board decides on the fourteenth" is.

That's the whole thing. Count, cost, return.

What to do with a date that just passes

There's a second case, and it's worse than a slip. The close date comes and goes. Nobody signs. Nobody says no either. You do nothing, and the deal sits there with a date in the past and a stage that still looks fine.

Here's the rule for that: a deal whose close date has passed without an update isn't open. It's unknown. And unknown deals do not count anywhere until you find out.

Not in commit. Not in best case. Not in the weighted pipeline. Nowhere.

That sounds harsh. It isn't. It's just honest bookkeeping. You don't know where that deal stands, so you shouldn't be counting it as money. The fix takes one message to the buyer. Ask what happened and what the new date is. If the answer is a real date from their side, the deal returns. If you get silence, that's what the silence limit is for: a number of days you set in advance, after which a quiet deal is marked lost. You don't wait until you've finally given up months later.

Choose your numbers before the deal exists

The slip rule only works if you set it before you're emotionally invested in a specific deal. Once you're thinking about the big one that would change your quarter, you'll find reasons the rule shouldn't apply.

So choose the thresholds of your deal slip rule in the abstract. Here's how the choices trade off.

Pick the strict column if you're not sure. If you steer by the number, you want to be surprised upwards. A deal that was out of commit and then closes is a pleasant week. A deal that was in commit and then slips is a cash problem.

The sensible middle is the version above: one slip allowed, the second one takes the deal out of commit. Adjust after a quarter of real outcomes, not after one painful deal.

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Whose date is it?

Half of all slips are your fault, and they happen before the date even moves.

A close date should be the buyer's date. "They said they decide at the board meeting on the fourteenth" is a close date. "I need it by month end" is a wish. If your dates come from your own calendar, you've built slippage into the forecast from day one. The rule will then punish you for moves you caused.

So add one line to the rule. Every close date has a source, and the source is the buyer. If you can't say where the date came from, it isn't a date yet. It's a hope, and it belongs in best case at most.

This also makes slips more informative. When a buyer's own date moves, you've learned something about their process. When your made-up date moves, you've learned nothing.

Applying it in the weekly review

The rule lives in your weekly pipeline review, which should be a fixed, short slot. If you don't have one yet, how to run a weekly pipeline review sets it up in under an hour a week.

When you walk the commit list, deal by deal, you ask the usual questions. What happened this week? What's the next step and its date? Then add the mechanical one: how many times has this date moved?

Count. Don't remember. Your memory is on the deal's side. If your tool shows a history of close-date changes, use it. If it doesn't, put a tally in the deal's notes, one mark per move.

Two marks and it leaves commit, today, in the review. Not at the end of the quarter, when it's too late to adjust anything.

And then comes the hard bit: don't make exceptions. One exception for the big deal is how the rule dies. The big deal is exactly the one the rule exists for, because it's the one you're most tempted to protect. If you can't bear to apply the rule to it, write the exception down in advance too, with its reason, so at least it's a decision rather than a drift.

Free guide · 20 pagesForecast the number you steer by.The Sales Forecast Playbook: stop adding up deals that feel likely.Get the free guide →

What the rule won't do

It won't make deals close. It won't tell you which late deal is genuinely fine. Some deals slip twice and still sign, because that's how that buyer works.

That's the price. You'll sometimes pull a good deal out of commit and be pleasantly wrong. Accept that. The alternative is the forecast you have now, where a bad deal and a good deal look the same because both keep getting a new date.

The rule is also a source of data. After a quarter, look at how often a deal that slipped once or twice eventually closed in the period. That is how you tune the thresholds. It's part of how to calibrate a sales forecast, and it feeds how much you should trust the slip rate when you plan around outside money arriving by a date.

For the other half of the same problem, deals that aren't slipping but simply sit, see how to set deal stage probabilities. A stuck deal at a high stage inflates the weighted number more quietly than anything else.

Your Monday job is small. Write your deal slip rule in three sentences. Count, cost, return. Put the silence limit beside them. Stick it where the review happens.

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Frequently asked questions

How many slips should a deal slip rule allow?

One is a fair start. The first move is noted, the second takes the deal out of commit until something new and factual happens. Tighten or loosen it after a quarter of real outcomes, not after a single deal annoys you.

Does a slipped deal leave the pipeline entirely?

No. It leaves commit, which is the list you stake your plans on. It can stay in the pipeline at its stage. It returns to commit when a real fact arrives, like a decision date from the buyer's own process.

What do I do with a close date that has already passed?

Treat the deal as unknown. It counts nowhere until you find out what happened. Ask the buyer, get a real date or a no, and update. If they go silent past your silence limit, mark it lost.

Should the rule apply to my biggest deal too?

Yes, and especially there. The biggest deal is the one you most want to protect, which is why it distorts the forecast most. If you really want an exception, write it down in advance with its reason.

The full method, with the checklists, is in The Sales Forecast Playbook, a free 20-page playbook.